Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Innovator's Dilemma - We're that broken

The Great Recession ... do we really understand how severe the damage is the fundamentals? This is the third Spring-eve of this economic nuclear winter (remember the mythical 'green shoots' of the early Spring of 2008?).

With Spring 2011 just over a week away, banks are still closing, housing values are still in decline, unemployment - while just inching below 9% for the first time in 2 years ... the longest duration at this 9% level EVER [and note that this dubious streak could come back to life as subsequent statistical corrections during the Great Recession typically have revised bad numbers upward after reporting] is still anemic.

As human nature tends to be, rather than mull impersonal big numbers that most find virtually impossible to digest (i.e.: billion, trillion, quadrillion), an example of one can often resonate more powerfully because people have a better ability to process examples that can be personalized.

In today's climate where folks are asking: "Where is a growth opportunity?", imagine a truly remarkable breakthrough invention, proven and even embraced by major market players, yet struggling to get funding necessary to mostly implement (not sell)? Here is a real-time example that illustrates just how broken today's fundamentals are:

Start-up's solution:
A patented invention that stops fires from starting in environmentally controlled facilities.

Key Value Proposition:
Eliminates damage from fire, as well as fire suppression agents from water to chemicals.

Application examples:
Data centers, storage facilities, archived materials, museums, etc.

Patent's estimated value:
$20-$25M

Endorsements:
- A major defense contractor projects sales potential in the neighborhood of $.5B.
- A major insurance company will offer a significant discount to clients who adopt the solution (due to the significant cost-savings from paying claims).
- A major utility embraces the solution.
- Industry experts anticipate the start-up to be acquired in just a few years.

That said:
- Deep pocketed entities that could seed now have a policy to not venture into start-ups, but to pay a premium later to acquire.
- The start-up's leadership is still pursuing an investor to fund scaling (seeking ~$10M).

Intuitively obvious to the casual observer, this start-up's invention is brilliant. The applicability of the solution is a no-brainer. The value and benefits are significant - from stopping costly damage to property, to significantly reducing the risk of injury to fire fighters and emergency service personnel, to savings lives where the solution is deployed.

Isn't it telling that in the late winter of 2011, a new business opportunity like the above is having a challenge to find funding? (If you happen to know of potential investors who may be interested in learning about this opportunity, contact me directly and I can share more details.)

Talk about an innovator's dilemma. We are that broken right now.

No comments: