Thursday, July 7, 2011

Innovators Dilemma - mCommerce: No surprise to some that it's a bright spot in this barren economy



This a link to a blog post response I made in response to commentary on mobilepaymentstoday.com recently(also copied below): http://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/blog/5922/The-economy-needs-jobs-There-are-lots-of-them-if-you-re-in-mobile-payments?name=5922%2FThe-economy-needs-jobs-There-are-lots-of-them-if-you-re-in-mobile-payments#reader_comments.

Some of us have been keenly aware of the potential for the mobile payments sector to be one of the very few bright spots in this historically bad economy. That vision goes back to the early to mid 1990s when monitizing the internet grabbed the headlines while strategic planners understood that a device agnostic world was coming.

Credit goes to the leaders at DoCoMo who pioneered breakthrough mobile payment solutions in the later 1990s while many leaders in the USA were still skeptical about mobile device penetration (especially into the teen demographic) and consumers' willingness and interest in using small screens for entertainment.

At AT&T in 1999, then again at an AT&T Labs incubator in 2000, a multi-phased eCommerce/mCommerce/tCommerce initiative (encompassing AT&T Wireless, Wireline, Worldnet, (then) Cable and other consumer-facing services that had companion direct billing relationships in the tens of millions), was 1 of just 2 (out of 20) incubator initiatives to make it to market and scale. Companies from Disney and WalMart, to Sony, Rhapsody Music, BestBuy, Vindigo, Atom Shockwave, 7-Eleven and others signed on and launched. Executives at these firms often told AT&T execs that telecom billing was the 'Holy Grail' of eCommerce/mCommerce billing.

While the SBC acquisition of the 'old' AT&T impacted the closing of that emerging business, the core paradigm shift envisioned by planners on several fronts is now coming into focus as a reality. Similar to how the Bonanza TV show was a major catalyst to consumer adaptation of color TVs in the early to mid 1960's, the Apple iPad was the catalyst to breaking the business model log jam of legacy subscription and bundle models from both the online and physical worlds ... ushering in ad hoc/one-off purchases of $.99 premium digital content.

Today, with the parallel explosion of advances in smart phones and applications, the stage was perfectly set for a giant like Google to move the mountain (although I'll note that AT&T and other eWallet providers talked with Google about being a supplier-partner for a Google eWallet going back about a decade).

Reality is that the US business climate used to facilitate breakthrough pioneering as recently as a generation ago. Over the last 20-30 years, the US business climate has (d)evolved to become more cautious, more focused on shorter term performance and 'surer-things'. Understandable because that is how executive compensation has evolved reward criteria ... mirroring the (d)evolving demand of investors of all sizes.

That the market for mobile payments is getting closer to critical mass is not a surprise to some, nor is it a surprise that mCommerce is one of the very few promising segments of the current disastrous economy. The pace has not been a surprise either, but the slower pace is still frustrating because in my view it reflects systemic flaws instituted over recent decades that have resulted in slowing the ability of innovation to emerge. Innovation helps drive a vastly healthier economy.