Innovator's Dilemma: Quote of the Day

Innovator's Dilemma: My 3rd Cousin's son - an innovation champion!

Just learned that a family member in Sweden (Nicklas Forslöw, my 3rd cousin Unni's nephew & my 3rd cousin Ingrid´s son) has developed an app that will mean:

The end of the shaky mobile clips

The shaky and flapping mobilfilmklippens time is past. In Linköping, researchers have developed a special application that stabilizes the picture, they call it "Dollycam".

- The film is shaky, it is that simple digital cameras are rolling shutter, and that they are often hand-held, says Per-Erik Forssén, associate professor at Linköping University.

Rolling shutter, he explains, means that the image is read line by line, and that is what causes the shaking.

- With a global shutter, which is available in professional cameras, read instead the entire image at once, says Per-Erik Forss.

What Dollycam do, it is simply that it adjusts the movie, image by image, so that the tremors disappear.

- Then make a video stabilizer for camera movements, and thus the movements smooth, says Per-Erik Forss.

Is the big difference

The technology was developed in conjunction with a research project on the rolling shutter.

- When the technician was developed, then we asked ourselves was this type of shutter is. In all cell phones, it hit us, says Per-Erik Forss.

Dollycam demonstrated for Corren. Side by side playing the same video up, a girl running around a field. The first clip is stabilized, the other not.

- As you can see, it's a big difference, says Per-Erik Forss.

Software, Per-Erik Forssén developed together with Erik Ringaby, PhD, and civil engineers Gustav Hanning and Nicklas Forslöw.

- My and Gustav's thesis was to develop an application, says Nicklas Forslöw.

Hope for cooperation

It's then a week to access free, and only on Friday had 1500 users have downloaded the application.

- There is also a version that you pay for, then you avoid our small watermark, Dollycam, at the corner of the films, says Per-Erik Forss.

Patents pending in the U.S., and Forskarpatent in Uppsala has already established that technology is one of its kind.

http://translate.google.se/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=sv&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=sv&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.corren.se%2Fostergotland%2Flinkoping%2F%3FarticleId%3D5731590&act=url

Read more in Monday Corren.

Viktor Andersson

Innovators Dilemma - mCommerce: No surprise to some that it's a bright spot in this barren economy

This a link to a blog post response I made in response to commentary on mobilepaymentstoday.com recently(also copied below): http://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/blog/5922/The-economy-needs-jobs-There-are-lots-of-them-if-you-re-in-mobile-payments?name=5922%2FThe-economy-needs-jobs-There-are-lots-of-them-if-you-re-in-mobile-payments#reader_comments.

Some of us have been keenly aware of the potential for the mobile payments sector to be one of the very few bright spots in this historically bad economy. That vision goes back to the early to mid 1990s when monitizing the internet grabbed the headlines while strategic planners understood that a device agnostic world was coming.

Credit goes to the leaders at DoCoMo who pioneered breakthrough mobile payment solutions in the later 1990s while many leaders in the USA were still skeptical about mobile device penetration (especially into the teen demographic) and consumers' willingness and interest in using small screens for entertainment.

At AT&T in 1999, then again at an AT&T Labs incubator in 2000, a multi-phased eCommerce/mCommerce/tCommerce initiative (encompassing AT&T Wireless, Wireline, Worldnet, (then) Cable and other consumer-facing services that had companion direct billing relationships in the tens of millions), was 1 of just 2 (out of 20) incubator initiatives to make it to market and scale. Companies from Disney and WalMart, to Sony, Rhapsody Music, BestBuy, Vindigo, Atom Shockwave, 7-Eleven and others signed on and launched. Executives at these firms often told AT&T execs that telecom billing was the 'Holy Grail' of eCommerce/mCommerce billing.

While the SBC acquisition of the 'old' AT&T impacted the closing of that emerging business, the core paradigm shift envisioned by planners on several fronts is now coming into focus as a reality. Similar to how the Bonanza TV show was a major catalyst to consumer adaptation of color TVs in the early to mid 1960's, the Apple iPad was the catalyst to breaking the business model log jam of legacy subscription and bundle models from both the online and physical worlds ... ushering in ad hoc/one-off purchases of $.99 premium digital content.

Today, with the parallel explosion of advances in smart phones and applications, the stage was perfectly set for a giant like Google to move the mountain (although I'll note that AT&T and other eWallet providers talked with Google about being a supplier-partner for a Google eWallet going back about a decade).

Reality is that the US business climate used to facilitate breakthrough pioneering as recently as a generation ago. Over the last 20-30 years, the US business climate has (d)evolved to become more cautious, more focused on shorter term performance and 'surer-things'. Understandable because that is how executive compensation has evolved reward criteria ... mirroring the (d)evolving demand of investors of all sizes.

That the market for mobile payments is getting closer to critical mass is not a surprise to some, nor is it a surprise that mCommerce is one of the very few promising segments of the current disastrous economy. The pace has not been a surprise either, but the slower pace is still frustrating because in my view it reflects systemic flaws instituted over recent decades that have resulted in slowing the ability of innovation to emerge. Innovation helps drive a vastly healthier economy.

Innovator's Dilemma - The post-digital world

OK, let's be provocative. From the vantage point of 2Q2011, the world is immersed in embracing, evolving, expanding and executing a digitally-centric world. Briefly stated, the Pandora's Box of the digital revolution has unleashed countless benefits and opportunities spanning communications, education, entertainment, business efficiencies, research, storage and more. Companion to these growth areas are the associated employment opportunities ... many that have allowed new generations from '3rd World' nations to also join and participate in the global economy.

However, many are also aware of downsides to the digital revolution that fundamentally manifest themselves broadly in the area of 'Security' but more specifically impact things ranging from online transacting (buying of digital and physical goods and services by sending personal financial information in the form of credit and debit card numbers, checking account numbers, etc); security

breaches of customer databases at online retailers, banks, etc.; new types of vulnerabilities to the increasingly digitized power/smart grids that are the backbones of many of today's societies; to the full spectrum of nation security and national defense infrastructures ... ALL subject to malicious attacks by very intelligent, well funded and coordinated efforts across all of the above with aims ranging from theft and disruption to power and control.

While I do not recall seeing any commentary about the 'dawn' of the post-digital age, it will arrive ... just as the 'post-modern' age followed the 'modern-age' (a rather arrogant label used during the mid to late 20th Century for cultural trappings ranging from architecture and design to philosophy and more).

The Digital Age is increasingly revealing significant vulnerabilities to the way-of-life of societies. Virtually every preventative security measure deployed in all of the above fields become 

vulnerable to attack the day after deployment by a hacker community that generally seems able to stay a step ahead of defensive/protective measures. Innovators and long term thinkers, what does this paradigm suggest? Sure, the daily tit for tat dance/race to stay a step ahead (or at least even) will continue in the short term .... but think ... can't a better 'way' be developed to address perpetual security risks? Maybe that answer doesn't get discovered until the 24th Century, but I ask now to start thinking outside the digital box.

As an analogy (or maybe more accurately labeled: a warning), think about how people are increasingly becoming dependent upon GPS technology to navigate themselves. While this digital technology is remarkable in its accuracy, I contend that it is 'dumbing' people down.

A 'GPS-dependent' generally will be effective at utilizing this tool to navigate themselves through the trees ... but that same person is almost completely clueless about the forest. Is anyone troubled that GPS-navigators have less of an understanding of the big picture than we've seen in at least generations? Not a good thing on many levels spanning insight and perspective to security, vulnerabilities and more.

Long term thinkers, are you catching the premise of my blog post here?

 

Innovators, fire your analog brains (and maybe tap some digital resources) and think about the potential for exciting opportunities to address significant problems of the digital age ... that will grow in importance and magnitude with each passing day. The stakes are high because the digital hooks are into virtually every fundamental cornerstone of 21st Century civilization.

Innovator's Dilemma - Taking on the Impossible

Late April 2011 in the Southern USA has just gone into the record books for having one of the most deadly outbreaks of tornadoes ever recorded. Category 5 monsters (200 mph+) obliterated vast swaths of land, communities and humanity
from Mississippi, through Alabama, Georgia, up through Virginia and beyond. Over 300 dead in Alabama and still about 450 unaccounted for. There were several category 5 twisters in Alabama, with one churning an incomprehensibly long path of destruction of almost 100 miles.

Personally I cannot think of a force in nature that intimidates with a combination of power, speed, surprise, randomness and frequency (I have faced tornadoes twice - once in the form of a water spout over Lake Pontchartrain on the north side on New Orleans, the other in my own back yard [I heard the train & saw the funnel rope-whipping near my house and adjacent neighborhood in NJ] - a category 1) . While there are regions of the nation prone to tornadoes, they can show up in places like California, Arizona, New York, Vermont, Maine and elsewhere. If earthquakes make you nervous, avoid settling on the West Coast. If tsunamis strike fear in your heart, avoid coastlines. Volcanoes bother you? Talk to your real estate agent about optional locations. Don't like blizzards? Head South. Hurricanes can pack a wallop from Florida to Maine, The Gulf states and into the interior but typically you get significant advance notice. Floods can be prepared for with levies, and while they can be breached, one chooses whether to live in a flood plain. While an asteroid hit carries the biggest destructive force, most of us can live with the frequency.

Then there is the tornado. You are lucky if you get 15 minutes notice (although the storm system that just battered the South was projected for several days ... but while one can board up windows for a hurricane, there is virtually no protective measures one can take to survive a direct hit from a tornado). Do you need two hands to count the number of states that are tornado-free? No. A tornado can hit virtually anywhere in North America. While I've seen tornado shelters in big corporate offices located on the plains of metro Dallas, many people have to rely on an interior room with a few pipes in the walls ... in a home built on a slab. In the South this week, complete fire department structures were swept away and turned into rubble. All the natural disasters in the prior paragraph pack a powerful punch too, but in my view, personal choice and/or diligence gives one a shot at safety. However, the tornado ...

When humanity faces what appears to be an insurmountable challenge requiring ingenuity, creativity, brain power, (etc.) ... killer diseases have been solved with advances in medicines; flight and then space travel has been conquered; intergalactic vision has been achieved with the Hubble Telescope orbiting the Earth; Dick Tracy-like communicators are now in the pockets of about a billion teenagers worldwide; etc., etc. With at least most of these achievements, what started as science fiction imagination, became a dream pursued and solved.

Now I'll opine on a science fiction dream that hopefully some future scientists and engineers can turn into reality. Imagine a mechanism that could be as affordable and ubiquitous as fire extinguishers that could be a defense mechanism against tornadoes, with any one hand-held 'tornado-extinguisher' having the power to neutralize a tornado. Have you ever even seen that sci-fi concept contemplated anywhere? Sure, this vision/dream is "out there" ... but, could it be akin to a generation ago having a warehouse-sized computer getting miniaturized by the early 21st Century so that the comparable computing power can now reside on a device that fits in one's pocket?

To my knowledge, the dream/challenge I am floating has no serious inquiry. These days weather experts try to improve their predictive abilities about tornadoes. Some chase tornadoes to observe, record and study the phenomena of tornadoes ... all basically with a goal of being better at predicting so that better advance notice can be given so folks have more time to flea or hunker down. I am flipping the paradigm. Rather than run and hide, face it, fight it, kill it.

Where would a person (vastly smarter than me) start with trying to solve this riddle? We know that tornadoes involve conical wind, low pressure, 'almost' all spin counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere, and other environmental characteristics. In their dissipating stage, tornadoes narrow into shapes resembling tubes or ropes. What causes dissipation? Is there an action that can be taken to accelerate the dissipation process. Is there a way to 'decapitate' a tornado? Is there a way to smother or choke-off the energy source of a tornado? Is there a way to pull-up a tornado (off the ground)? Is there a way to anticipate a emerging weather pattern known to spawn tornadoes, attack and disburse the converging weather patterns before they merge to spawn? What draws a tornado to take a path (terrain?, lower air pressure? other factors?). If factors influencing tornado path direction can be understood, can action be taken to "bait" a tornado to take a different path (i.e.: up, or away from population centers)?

This Wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado) gives a thorough overview of tornadoes. Of course scientists have studied tornadoes for generations. Scientists studied the stars for centuries ... but not until the the last half century did the will and determination get focused on achieving space flight.

It is so painful to watch the suffering of those victimized by annual tornadoes. While one of the most popular TV shows in recent years ("Extreme Makeover") celebrates significant improvements to a home per week for their ~20-25 week season, think of the hundreds (and in years like 2011 - thousands) of homes destroyed by tornadoes. Frankly I am sick of humanity getting terrorized by these beasts.
To rehash a cliched call to action from half a century ago " ... if we can put a man on the moon in less than a decade, then ... " (let's figure out how to kill tornadoes!). Nothing is impossible to determined innovators!

Innovator's Dilemma - We're that broken

The Great Recession ... do we really understand how severe the damage is the fundamentals? This is the third Spring-eve of this economic nuclear winter (remember the mythical 'green shoots' of the early Spring of 2008?).

With Spring 2011 just over a week away, banks are still closing, housing values are still in decline, unemployment - while just inching below 9% for the first time in 2 years ... the longest duration at this 9% level EVER [and note that this dubious streak could come back to life as subsequent statistical corrections during the Great Recession typically have revised bad numbers upward after reporting] is still anemic.

As human nature tends to be, rather than mull impersonal big numbers that most find virtually impossible to digest (i.e.: billion, trillion, quadrillion), an example of one can often resonate more powerfully because people have a better ability to process examples that can be personalized.

In today's climate where folks are asking: "Where is a growth opportunity?", imagine a truly remarkable breakthrough invention, proven and even embraced by major market players, yet struggling to get funding necessary to mostly implement (not sell)? Here is a real-time example that illustrates just how broken today's fundamentals are:

Start-up's solution:
A patented invention that stops fires from starting in environmentally controlled facilities.

Key Value Proposition:
Eliminates damage from fire, as well as fire suppression agents from water to chemicals.

Application examples:
Data centers, storage facilities, archived materials, museums, etc.

Patent's estimated value:
$20-$25M

Endorsements:
- A major defense contractor projects sales potential in the neighborhood of $.5B.
- A major insurance company will offer a significant discount to clients who adopt the solution (due to the significant cost-savings from paying claims).
- A major utility embraces the solution.
- Industry experts anticipate the start-up to be acquired in just a few years.

That said:
- Deep pocketed entities that could seed now have a policy to not venture into start-ups, but to pay a premium later to acquire.
- The start-up's leadership is still pursuing an investor to fund scaling (seeking ~$10M).

Intuitively obvious to the casual observer, this start-up's invention is brilliant. The applicability of the solution is a no-brainer. The value and benefits are significant - from stopping costly damage to property, to significantly reducing the risk of injury to fire fighters and emergency service personnel, to savings lives where the solution is deployed.

Isn't it telling that in the late winter of 2011, a new business opportunity like the above is having a challenge to find funding? (If you happen to know of potential investors who may be interested in learning about this opportunity, contact me directly and I can share more details.)

Talk about an innovator's dilemma. We are that broken right now.

Innovator's Dilemma - Book recommendation: 'Do More Faster' (by Cohen & Feld)

An easy-to-read collection of advice for those embarking on start-up businesses ... from dozens of leaders of start-ups. Nicely organized across the major 'theme' areas of:

1) Idea and Vision
2) People
3) Execution
4) Product
5) Fundraising
6) Legal and Structure
7) Work-Life Balance

Each theme area includes 8-16 sub-topic perspectives and advice from entrepreneurs of all ages who have run the gauntlet and have generously shared guidance that can help future start-up leaders be more prepared and effective with navigating these inevitable challenges.

Here's the opening intro inside the front flap:

It is a cold, hard fact of business life that most start-ups fail. Even many of those entrepreneurs who ultimately succeed have stories of personal challenges, unsuccessful companies, and difficulties along the way. The founders of TechStars, a mentorship-driven start-up accelerator, have worked with entrepreneurs and companies over the past twenty-five years, and have seen a number of the same issues come up again and again.

In Do More Faster, the founders of TechStars identify the key issues that first-time entrepreneurs encounter, and offer advice from successful entrepreneurs who have worked with the TechStars program.

Innovator's Dilemma - Think out of the ... (uh) ... USB

Now this is creative innovation! Push those boundaries into the great-beyond! (If the Star-ship Enterprise can utilize a transporter in the 1960's, then why not this creative app for the USB port of a PC?)

Visit their site to see a demo (have your Rosetta Stone software handy!) http://www.1jour1vin.com/fr/landingpages/usbwine

Think about how the sophistication of transmitting has evolved in the few short decades since 1's and 0's were discovered and the world began its rapid digital transformation. Along with more creative and aggressive use of the bandwidth spectrum and the seemingly endless trend to pack more processing power from tinier and tinier 'engines', I can envision a future when breakthroughs are made with transmitting more that sound and data.

From a layman's perspective, does that mean that once discoveries are made - with how to map digital representations of physical 'stuff' (animate and/or inanimate) - then humanity is in a position to embark upon the next frontier of 'transport'? I know I am getting a little sci-fi here, but isn't that one of the ways discoveries are made ... by imagining and envisioning (a theory) then going out and trying to figure out how to connect the dots (as opposed to accidental discovery)? Break though this barrier and you'll be Back To The Future with Doc, traveling across the stars.

Think about the progress recently with virtual reality technology. Think about the imagination reflected in The Matrix (brain-updates via a direct man-machine interface and download). From Star Trek, to The Fly to countless other sci-fi movies ... it's fun and instructive to reflect on the imagination of yesteryear in venues like Flash Gordon, Dick Tracy and others ... and now living - just a few decades later - with some of those once 'impossible' concepts as part of our daily routines.

Now matter what your background or IQ, its fun to imagine and figure out ways to be a part of influencing innovation!

Innovator's Dilemma - Where is our vision and commitment to colonizing space?

Whether one subscribes to the notion of accelerated global warming as a result of human activity, three inevitable facts are on the long, longer and very long term horizons:

1) Global population continues to grow.
2) Earth has been hit by large meteors that have exterminated species (i.e.: dinosaurs).
3) The Sun will not burn forever.



Are all three inevitable? At least 1 & 3 are, with 2 having a strong statistical probability of happening.

For most of the past half century, the USA has led humanity with remarkable achievements in space exploration and development. In recent years, other nations have gained stature with the growing sophistication of their space exploration efforts - either independent and/or in collaboration with other nations. However, this past week marked a bittersweet chapter in American space exploration history. The final mission of the Discovery Space Shuttle is underway (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery_space_shuttle). The 39th mission for Discovery - a record - only two additional space shuttle flights (by are Atlantis and Endeavour) remain before the 30 year old space shuttle program is retired (with no new manned space flight programs planned).

So let's think about this. Economically, the USA is still suffering under the suffocating Great Recession. Each month, unemployment records get shattered (currently the USA is in the depths of the longest duration of unemployment over 9% EVER [closing in on 24 consecutive months at this unsustainable level] ... with overall unemployment rates in the high teens neighborhood of the Depression era). Bank closings quietly continue nationally every week. Foreclosure rates remain at record levels, etc., etc., etc.

Consider these basics: When a bridge is under construction, there is a hiring boom for a variety of jobs spanning designers, builders, transportation to bring in materials and supplies along with countless other direct jobs, as well as countless indirect jobs to provide food, lodging, entertainment and more.

Now go big picture. The USA is pretty developed - at least at a plateau for the early 21st century. From roadways (which always require maintenance), to hi-tech infrastructure ... since the baby boom America has grown on about all fronts. However, over recent decades as the average age of population in USA got older, infrastructure became reasonably built out (i.e.: the bridge was completed). In parallel, the global environment evolved. Economies of scale coupled with a more open and sophisticated global market facilitated shifting some significant job sustaining industries off shore ... partially due to demand shifting from the US to other markets and partially due to better economics in other markets ... freeing up US workers to pursue opportunities in emerging industries (which are now mostly sputtering).

The growth trajectory of the US is stalled (at best) and in a decline (at worst). Where is a meaningful growth sector (forget 'boom') for the foreseeable future? There isn't one (other than possibly mobile commerce).

So .... let's connect the dots. Last week there was an announcement by a large group of international scientists that the demands from Earth's growing population (#1 above) of humanity will outstrip the world's food producing capabilities based on today's technologies in about 50 years.

Assuming we can dodge any neighborhood asteroids over the next half century, how about a multinational 'investment' in the future of humanity by seriously accelerating efforts to colonize space?

With this opportunity presented to humanity on a silver platter .. instead, funding for NASA is in retreat.

Really? This is the best we can do? This qualifies as vision? When (not "If") humanity is facing extinction, no short term emergency undertaking will viably save our species (or any other species we could protect in a modern Noah Space-Ark).

A half century ago, would the US Space program gotten off the ground if there was not a Cold War threat from the USSR? (Did you know the the USA's Interstate Highway system became a reality by riding on the coattails of a Defense readiness bill back in the 1950s? Follow the lessons of history?) National policy planners (and voters who put these representatives into office) have minimal concerns for passing along financial liabilities to future generations to appease short-term voter demands for trash and trinkets, so the prospect of visionary policy makers having a snow ball's chance in you-know-where to get a visionary space colonization program off the ground seems impossible.

That said, we know by experience that the US Space program unleashed unintended innovation that spanned consumer entertainment, safety, medicine and more. Similar to the notion of constructing a bridge and constructing national infrastructure .... authorizing a commitment to a space colonization program can have short term employment benefits, unleash a variety of growth industries and lay the investment foundation for spreading the risks of having "everything" in one place - the good ship Earth - which will (according to scientists last week) face a significant food shortage crisis in 50 years, and statistically will face another Cretaceous-Tertiary like extinction event that could dwarf the last one of 65.5M years ago.

Vision, courage, commitment to capitalize on opportunity. This isn't that hard to embark upon if we have the maturity and discipline to understand and seize this short, intermediate and long term opportunity!

Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christianson

Introduced to this author and book about a decade ago by a colleague at AT&T Labs, Clayton Christianson's book is a masterpiece of insight, wisdom and guidance. A must read for anyone interested in innovation. Expect to be inspired!